Regional Climate Change Effects on the Viticulture in Portugal

The grapevine (Vitis vinifera) is widely cultivated for the production of wine and other commodities. Wine globally traded, with an annual market value approximately USD 4 billion in Portugal alone. However, climate change expected to profoundly alter regional temperature precipitation regimes across Iberian Peninsula and, thus, continental Portugal, potentially threatening impact viticulture. We used boosted regression trees environmental variables describing climate, soil, topography, irrigation a large number presences (N = 7002) estimate suitability baseline (1981–2010) three future periods spanning from 2011 2100 using two trajectories (SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5) scenarios (continued ceased). Under SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5 without irrigation, our results suggest decline suitable viticulture area ~20% ~80% by 2041–2070 2011–2041, respectively. Following this decline, data potential recovery 2071–2100 ~6% ~186%, more complex: 2071–2100, Região Norte, Douro region, Algarve, example, each would experience changes range −92% −48%, −86% −24%, −59% 267%, respectively, depending mostly on practicality irrigation.